7 points in 7 matchdays. Can Eintracht gain ground and qualify for Europa league for the second year in a row?

 

With just 7 matchdays to go, Eintracht currently sit 6 points behind Hoffenheim and 2 points off Koln, our beloved Eintracht needs a little help to qualify once again for European Competition. With all the moves made this summer, it's been an up and down year filled with inconsistent attacking play and a slow start to the season that didn't see them pick up their first win until Matchweek 7. After losing to SV Waldhof, getting blasted 5-2 by Dortmund in a game that still gives me nightmares of Erling Haaland running down the middle of the pitch like a runaway freight train, and picking up 6 straight draws, to be in this position is a testament to the work that Glasner has done this year. While the defense has stabilized, the attack has never really found it's footing. In today's post we'll look at key matchups down the stretch for Eintracht, Kon, and Hoffenheim. 

1. FC Koln:

Record: 10 - 10 - 7

Last Five: 2-2-1

Goal Differential: 38 GF - 40 GA

3 Biggest Games

Matchday 29 @ Mainz '05 - Koln has only won 1 matchup of the last five, (12-12-2020). Mainz has been inconsistent over the last 5, going 2-1-2. They thumped Armenia Bielefeld 4-0 right before the break, so maybe they've found some footing. The '05ers have been unbelievable (3rd best home record in the Bundesliga) at Mewa arena, going 8-3-2 with a goal differential of +20. Mainz likes to help us out, they'll come through again on this Matchweek.

Matchday 33 vs. Wolfsburg - The wheels have completely fallen off this year in Wolfsburg, but they've won 3 of the last 5 matchups.  Koln the better of them 3-2 earlier this year in Wolfsburg and Die Wölfe have struggled this year on the road (4-2-7; -8 GD), but maybe Florian Kohfeldt can pull something out of his squad who has 1 win in their last 5.

Matchday 34 @ VfB Stuttgart - Koln has won both matchups against Stuttgart this year, including a 1-0 win at Rhein Energie Stadion in Matchweek 17, and a 2-0 win in Koln in the second round of the DFB Pokal.  It's hard to beat a team 3 times in one year, and Stuttgart has been fairly tough to beat at home, going 5-3-6 with a -3 GD.  

TSG-Hoffenheim:

Record: 13-5-9

Last Five: 4-1-1

Goal Differential: +9; 49 GF - 40 GA

3 Biggest Games

Matchday 28 vs. VfL Bochum - Hoffenheim has been lights out at home this year Bochum hasn't won a road game in 5 games, but Bochum won 2-0 this year at home.  

Matchday 29 @ RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim won the previous this season in Sinsheim after going winless against Die Roten Bullen in 5 straight.  Leipzig is the 4th best home team in the Bundesliga (9-2-3, +20) and is undefeated in 6 straight home matches.  Leipzig hasn't lost to Hoffenheim at Red Bull Arena since April of 2018.  Leipzig is in amazing form, going 10-2-1 over their last 13, with their only loss being a 2-3 defeat to Bayern.

Matchday 31 @ Eintracht Frankfurt - This could be for the rights to go to the Europa League, and is the only matchup Eintracht has left between the two above them. Hoffenheim won the early season matchup 3-2 at PreZero Arena after Eintracht had won 5 straight matchups.  Eintracht has really struggled at home this year, and Hoffenheim has been fairly decent on the road (17 points, -5GD). If Hoffenheim gets the first goal, this could be trouble.

Eintracht Frankfurt:

To make it in, Die Adler need wins.  The three straight losses (Wolfsburg - Matchday 22, 1. FC Koln - Matchday 23, and Bayern Munich - Matchday 24) loom large as Eintracht tries to battle back in to European Competition.  With Munich, Dortmund, and Leipzig now off their schedule, Eintracht needs to capitalize on the easier part of their schedule.  Koln and Hoffenheim have also both checked Dortmund and Bayern off the list, but there is still help along the way for our Eagles.  Every game is vital, but the final game @ Mainz is going to be the most difficult of the season gauging on what's being played for, and how good Mainz has been at home.  

How Eintracht does it:

Simple, the Defense holds form, and Kamada finds form.  If Kamada finds his form and jump-starts the attack, Eintracht gets in.  In order for this to happen, he needs to form a better connection with Rafael Borré.  Borré has managed only 43 shots in 2100 minutes spearheading the Eintracht attack (1.84 shots/90).  Borré's accuracy (46.5% of his shots are on target,) ranks 9th in the Bundesliga among all players with at least 30 shots.  His .35 goals/shot on target is just behind the rate of Robert Lewandowski (.41), and his accuracy is on par with what Andre Silva put up last year (49.5%, .20,).  His shots are all coming from well within the box, at 13.5 yards per attempt.  

While Borré is on pace with Silva in terms of the number of touches, they aren't turning into shots.He's not seeing the ball directly in front of the goal as often as Silva did, and he's often getting balls deeper in the attacking 3rd, allowing Lindstrom and Kamada to make runs off of him.  Kamada has to find a way to make that final pass to Borre and Lindstrom and get back to his form of a year ago.  Kamada's number of key passes/90 has been cut almost in half this year (1.0, down from 1.8 a year ago) even though all his other ratios (touches per game, accurate passes per game, etc) are all roughly the same.

The defense (for the most part) has been solid since the Winter Pause, giving up 6 goals over the last 6 weeks.  It's maddening that Kevin Trapp can't keep a clean sheet, and he's needed to in order to get 3 points in most games this year.  There was not a bigger piece of evidence than the 0-1 loss to Koln on Matchday 23.  That game is really biting them right now, and the attack looked anemic, and as Oliver Glasner went with a bit of a more defensive midfield than normal, Eintracht couldn't hold possession, could barely get it out of their own end of the field and managed only 2 shots on target for the entire game.

The 6th place slots over the last five years have scored:

2021: 53

2020: 52

2019: 55

2018: 53

2017: 49

Eintracht currently sit at 38 points, they need 15-17 points to qualify, which means picking up wins.  They need at least 4 wins over the last 7, and while it is extremely possible, the Diva needs to hide her ugly head.  

Thanks again for reading,

Forza S.G.E.

Brian