*Author's Note: Of Course, as I'm writing this and in perfect time, Eintracht blast Olympiacos 3:1 in the Europa League and looked pretty good going forward. This team loves to poke me while I'm writing something down :)
To say the start of this season has been disappointing would be an understatement. Eintracht, currently mired sitting at 15th in the table with a 1-6-3 record has been shockingly extremely frustrating to watch, and shockingly....well.....mediocre. While Oliver Glasner has worked hard to put his stamp on this team defensively, this team has needed a season-long heroic effort from Kevin Trapp to overcome certain defensive deficiencies just to snatch 1-point on most occasions. The team ranks top 5 in multiple key defensive categories (tackles won, pressures, successful pressure %, interceptions, and ball recoveries), but the Bundesliga season and the Europa League schedule hinge on one question: Can this version of the Eintracht attack jump to life and start scoring goals?
What do the numbers say?
Eintracht ranks 14th in goals scored (10), and in an odd statistic, the only times they've managed more than one goal was against Dortmund (5-2 loss on Match Day 1) and Bayern Munchen (2-1 win on Match Day 7). The Eagles rank 14th in shots (116), 15th in Shots on Target (35), 17th in Goals per Shot (.07) and 16th in goals per shot on target (.23). They are 4th worst in distance per shot (18.1) and their Goals vs. XG is -3.4. By literally every statistic, the scorers on this team are massively underperforming. While the attack has looked better in Europa League competition, they haven't been able to translate that same effectiveness into League Play.
Haunted by the ghosts of Eintracht's past:
We know the names. Bernd Hölzenbein, Jürgen Grabowski, Bernd Nickel, Tony Yeboah, Jay Jay Ochoka, and more recently Theofanis Gekas, Alex Meier, Sebastien Haller, Luka Jovic, Ante Rebic, and Andrew Silva. Eintracht Frankfurt has had quality talent in goal-scoring positions for much of recent history. Eintracht should be haunted by each of these names, especially in the now. Most have moved on to greener pastures (arguably, is there a pasture truly greener than Commerzbank Arena?), some brought in big money moves, the great ones rode out their career in Frankfurt. Eintracht's current anemic attack could use a jumpstart from any one of these players, and some members of the current squad need to channel their inner predecessors.
Sam Lammers, Rafael Santos Borré, and Gonçalo Paciênciaaren't striking fear in anyone's heart at the moment, and one of them desperately needs to step up. While the fault isn't completely their own, the blame ultimately lies on them. Good strikers score goals. Point blank, end of story, the good ones find a way to get the job done. The three of them combined have accumulated a total of 2 goals from open play in the first 900 minutes of action to the Bundesliga season. That's 2 goals, on 34 shots. Of the 34 shots, only 10 have been on target. Netting 20% of your goals/shot on target is part of why this attack ranks 16th in the league (3rd worst) in that category (23% as a team.) Eintracht 14th in shots taken (116), 15th in Shots on target (35), and tied for 14th in Goals Scored (9). While simply creating chances is a problem, putting those chances on target is a bigger one. Sam Lammers ranks 95th in the Bundesliga in Shot On Target percentage (33.3%) and Rafael Santos Borré ranks 105th (31.6%). To put that in perspective, Silva put 49.5% of his 107 chances on target in his amazing season a year ago. Jovic (43%) Haller (46%) and Rebic (47%) were all more accurate shooters during their time in Schwarz-Weiss. And while this isn't the greatest measure of a goal-scorer (Bas Dost put over 50% of his shots on Target as an Eagle), it can certainly tell you who has the basic ability to direct the ball into the proper direction.
Struggling to find footing:
There are tons of possible reasons for it. Adjusting to a new level of play, adjusting to a new style of play, and adjusting to new teammates are just a few of the reasons that neither of the new strikers has really pushed through and taken hold of the job yet. The duo ranks 16th in terms of touches inside the penalty box by strikers in Bundesliga play. They aren't just struggling to put shots on target, they are struggling to simply get the ball in workable areas.
The fault lies well beyond them. Daichi Kamada, who was spectacular at times last year and flourished playing alongside Amin Younes in the Dopplezehn attack that took Germany by storm in the middle 1/3rd of the year, has yet to make his mark as the team's primary #10. He has seen a large reduction in Shot Creating Actions/90 minutes (4.05 - 2.87) Key Passes/90 minutes (1.8-1.1) and he has yet to connect on a single through ball this year. With Filip Kostic holding steady to his usual pace and averaging almost the exact same metrics as a year ago (Goal creating Actions - 4.45 this year vs. 4.26 last year; Key Passes - 2.6 this year vs. 3.0 last year), the team is missing its playmakers up the middle.
Has Paciência earned a longer look?
The statistics say.....maybe. Paciência has only managed 62 minutes on the year but had earned his first start vs. Bochum before an injury forced him off. In those 62 minutes, Paciência has been very active. His 4.35 Shot Creating Actions per game rank only behind Filip Kostic on Eintracht's roster and would rank him 11th best in the league if he had enough minutes to qualify. He's producing at a Max Kruse-type level in terms of center-forward play. While he has 2 goals on the year in all competitions, neither have come from open-play (both penalties) and he also has had trouble putting the ball on Target (only 2 of his 10 shots across all competitions have been on the mark). Paciência isn't the swiftest striker on earth, but he's a good passer and plays hold-up decently well which are two things Lammers and Borré greatly lack. Whether Paciência can play in Glasner's high-pressing style system is undeniably questionable. But he can offer something going forward in terms of giving the midfield a big target to find in the deep middle of the field, with the ability to do something with it at his feet.
With a struggling Greuther Fürth playing host tomorrow, let's hope Eintracht can figure out one of the Bundesliga's worst defenses. We could use a 3 goal game, and 3 points.
Thanks again for reading.
Forza S.G.E.
Brian
